September's non-farm payroll data was mixed, and the outlook for a Fed rate cut in December remains divided.
AI Summary1 min read
TL;DR
September's non-farm payroll data showed mixed signals, causing divided market expectations for a Fed rate cut in December. Some analysts predict a cut due to rising unemployment and weak data, while others see a 50/50 chance.
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non-farm payrollFed rate cutunemployment ratemarket expectationsDecember policy
According to Mars Finance, citing Jinshi, the September non-farm payroll data sent mixed signals, leading to divergent market expectations regarding a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Financial brokerage XTB believes that the persistently rising unemployment rate could trigger a rate cut. Goldman Sachs Asset Management points out that despite recent hawkish sentiment, weak hard data and near-target inflation will drive policy developments. Sparta Securities predicts the Fed may choose to cut rates by 25 basis points in December, while CITIC Securities believes changes in the unemployment rate will influence the rate cut decision. TD Securities states that the September non-farm payroll report simultaneously confirmed the views of both hawks and doves, and the market's pricing for a December rate cut has readjusted to a 50/50 split.