Vietnamese banks’ property sector exposure seen leveling off in 2026 – Moody’s

Vietnamese banks’ property sector exposure seen leveling off in 2026 – Moody’s

Vietnamese Banks’ Property Sector Exposure Seen Leveling Off in 2026 – Moody’s

Moody’s Investors Service has indicated that Vietnam’s banking sector will see a stabilization in its exposure to the property market in 2026, driven by tighter lending standards and slower credit growth. The agency maintains a stable outlook for Vietnam’s banks, assigning them a “Ba2 stable” rating, reflecting supportive domestic economic conditions and policy measures aimed at mitigating risks.

A key factor underpinning this outlook is the anticipated moderation of credit expansion. While system-wide loan growth is projected to decelerate to 15% in 2026 from 19% in 2025, banks are expected to adopt more cautious approaches to high-risk real estate lending. This shift, combined with stronger regulatory oversight, should help reduce liquidity pressures and lower the banking sector’s problem loan ratio to approximately 2.1% by year-end. Moody’s noted that large banks and securities firms, in particular, are well-positioned to navigate near-term challenges due to their resilience and access to policy support.

However, external headwinds persist. High U.S. tariffs remain a drag on Vietnam’s real GDP growth, though increased public investment is expected to partially offset a potential slowdown in foreign direct investment (FDI). Domestically, accelerating loan growth in 2026 may strain funding profiles, prompting banks to issue more bonds to meet liquidity needs. This trend aligns with broader efforts to rebalance funding sources amid aggressive national growth targets.

For investors, the stabilization of property sector exposure signals reduced systemic risks, though vigilance is warranted regarding external trade tensions and domestic liquidity dynamics. Moody’s emphasized that Vietnam’s banks remain resilient in the face of these challenges, supported by a stable domestic environment and proactive policy frameworks.

(https://www.theasset.com/article/53976/moody-s-keeps-stable-outlook-for-vietnam-banks): The Asset, May 2025
(https://www.linkedin.com/posts/asian-banking-and-finance_vietnams-banks-to-issue-more-bonds-as-loan-activity-7402168534484537344-Y6wR): Asian Banking & Finance, February 2026
(https://www.theasset.com/article/55480/vietnam-banks-face-funding-squeeze-bond-issuance-to-rise): The Asset, February 2026
(https://www.linkedin.com/posts/visrating_vis-rating-credit-outlook-2026-media-3-activity-7423921571775438848-Eefd): VIS Rating, February 2026