VanEck 2026 Outlook: Limited Potential Downside for BTC in This Round; 2026 More Likely to Be a Year of Consolidation

According to Foresight News , Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets at VanEck, stated in his 2026 outlook that digital assets are showing complex but positive signals at the start of 2026. Bitcoin fell by about 80% in the last cycle, but actual volatility has since decreased by nearly half, meaning the current decline may be reduced to around 40%. The market has currently priced in about 35% of the drop. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's historical four-year cycle (often peaking around the time of the US election) remains valid after the high in early October 2025. This pattern suggests that 2026 is more likely to be a year of consolidation than a surge or crash.

In 2026, global liquidity will be mixed. Expectations of interest rate cuts will provide support, but US liquidity will tighten slightly due to the clash between AI-driven capital expenditure and fragile funding markets, leading to widening credit spreads. Leverage ratios in the crypto ecosystem have been reset after several shakeouts. While on-chain activity remains weak, it is beginning to show signs of improvement. Matthew Sigel suggests that, against this backdrop, a disciplined 1% to 3% Bitcoin allocation should be established through dollar-cost averaging, increasing holdings during leveraged liquidations and reducing holdings when market speculation becomes excessive.