Arthur Hayes: Strong Revenue and Real Trading Could Send HYPE to $150
TL;DR
Arthur Hayes is bullish on Hyperliquid (HYPE), citing its strong revenue, real trading activity, and team restraint in token sales as key drivers that could push HYPE to $150. He also highlights Circle's USYC overtaking BlackRock in tokenized Treasuries as the market hits $11 billion.
Key Takeaways
- •Hyperliquid generates nearly $1 billion in annualized revenue with genuine trading activity, not inflated by incentives.
- •Hayes turned bullish on HYPE after the team chose not to sell most of its token allocations, reducing unlock pressure.
- •Hyperliquid offers unique features like permissionless listings for assets like oil and high leverage (10x-20x) unavailable on traditional platforms.
- •Risks include rising competition, potential fee erosion, and excessive bullish sentiment affecting HYPE's price-to-earnings ratio.
- •The tokenized U.S. Treasury market has grown to over $11 billion, with Circle's USYC surpassing BlackRock's BUIDL at $2.2 billion.
Circle overtakes BlackRock in tokenized Treasuries as market hits record $11 billion
Circle’s USYC tokenized U.S. Treasury fund has grown to $2.2 billion, surpassing BlackRock’s BUIDL fund as investors increasingly seek onchain yield and collateral.
What to know:
- Circle's USYC token has become the largest tokenized U.S. Treasury product, with about $2.2 billion in supply, overtaking BlackRock's BUIDL fund.
- Much of USYC's recent growth is tied to its use on BNB Chain, with Binance introducing the token as off-exchange collateral for institutional derivatives trading.
- The overall market for tokenized U.S. Treasuries has surged to a fresh record of over $11 billion, up 27% this year, fueled by investor demand for yield and a place to park capital during the crypto downturn.
Why Arthur Hayes is bullish: In an interview with CoinDesk's Jennifer Sanasie on MArkets Outlook, Hayes said Hyperliquid has separated itself from competing perpetual futures exchanges with real usage rather than incentive-driven volume.
- Hayes told Sanasie he sold his firm’s HYPE position around $50–$55 ahead of expected token unlock pressure but turned bullish again after the team chose not to sell most of its monthly token allocations.
- He said Hyperliquid still generates close to a $1 billion annualized revenue run rate based on 30-day fee data.
- The platform’s HIP-3 permissionless listing system has expanded trading beyond crypto into assets like oil or equity indices.
What’s driving activity: Hayes said traders are increasingly using Hyperliquid to access markets unavailable through traditional platforms.
- Retail traders can trade assets like oil or Nasdaq proxies 24/7 on-chain using stablecoins and crypto wallets.
- Hayes said leverage of 10x–20x is often available compared with the 2x–3x many retail investors receive on traditional brokerage platforms.
- Weekend geopolitical events, such as sudden conflict announcements, have pushed traders to use Hyperliquid while traditional markets are closed.
Why Hyperliquid stands out: Hayes argued Hyperliquid’s liquidity and trading metrics show more genuine market activity than rival decentralized exchanges.
- Many competing platforms rely on wash trading or token incentive programs to inflate activity, Hayes said.
- He evaluates exchanges using the ratio of trading volume to open interest, which he said helps identify genuine trading demand.
- Hayes said Hyperliquid has the lowest ratio among major perpetual DEXs, indicating more “real” trading.
- The platform also offers the lowest slippage for large bitcoin perpetual trades ranging from $100,000 to $10 million, he said.
What could derail the thesis: Hayes said rising hype and stronger competition could signal a potential exit point.
- He said he would reconsider his position if HYPE’s price-to-earnings ratio rises sharply and market sentiment becomes overwhelmingly bullish.
- Another risk is whether competitors offering lower fees can erode Hyperliquid’s roughly 70% share of perpetual DEX revenue.
- Hayes said maintaining strong revenue and continued restraint in team token selling are key to sustaining the bull case.
Beyond HYPE: Hayes also highlighted privacy-focused crypto projects as a developing narrative.
- He said Zcash could benefit from growing concerns about blockchain surveillance and AI-powered transaction analysis.
- Hayes cited Zcash’s cryptographic upgrades and privacy model as reasons he favors it over alternatives like Monero.
Bitcoin outlook: Hayes maintained his aggressive forecast for Bitcoin.
- He reiterated that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of the year despite missing earlier targets.
- Circle's USYC token has become the largest tokenized U.S. Treasury product, with about $2.2 billion in supply, overtaking BlackRock's BUIDL fund.
- Much of USYC's recent growth is tied to its use on BNB Chain, with Binance introducing the token as off-exchange collateral for institutional derivatives trading.
- The overall market for tokenized U.S. Treasuries has surged to a fresh record of over $11 billion, up 27% this year, fueled by investor demand for yield and a place to park capital during the crypto downturn.
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