Institutional Outlook for 2026: Traditional capital is deepening its involvement in the crypto ecosystem; disagreements remain regarding the four-year...
TL;DR
2026년 기관 전망: 스테이블코인은 금융 인프라의 핵심 변수로 부상했으며, 전통 자본의 암호화폐 생태계 참여는 심화되고 있습니다. 그러나 암호화폐의 4년 주기에 대한 의견은 여전히 분분합니다.
Key Takeaways
- •스테이블코인이 기술 실험을 넘어 통화 주권과 금융 인프라 재편의 핵심 변수로 부상
- •전통 자본의 암호화폐 생태계 참여가 정교화된 방식으로 심화되어 가역적 과정
- •암호화폐 4년 주기 유효성에 대해 기관 간 상당한 의견 차이 존재
- •비트코인 현물 ETF부터 알트코인 ETF, 파생상품 진화까지 규제·제품 혁신 전선에서 기관들이 다음 구조적 기회 포지셔닝
- •예측 시장에 대해 거의 모든 기관이 여전히 낙관적 전망
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On January 3rd, as markets recover from the dramatic volatility of 2025, top global financial institutions have quietly charted their course for the new year. BlockBeats, integrating 2026 outlooks from eight authoritative institutions including BlackRock, Fidelity, and JPMorgan Chase, reveals a distinct market picture emerging:
A consensus is forming regarding stablecoins. Institutions believe that stablecoins are no longer just a technological experiment; they have become a core variable impacting monetary sovereignty and restructuring financial infrastructure. The institutionalization process is irreversible, and regardless of market conditions, traditional capital is penetrating the crypto ecosystem with a more sophisticated approach.
However, significant institutional disagreements remain regarding the four-year cycle of cryptocurrencies. On the regulatory and product innovation front, from Bitcoin spot ETFs to Altcoin ETFs, from compliance frameworks to the evolution of derivatives, institutions have begun positioning themselves for the next structural opportunity. Almost all institutions remain bullish on prediction markets. The following are the main points of this institutional outlook:
BlackRock 2026 Outlook: Stablecoins will challenge governments' control over fiat currencies. As stablecoin adoption surges, the use of fiat currencies in emerging market countries risks shrinking.
Fidelity: More countries may buy Bitcoin in the future. If companies choose or are forced to sell some of their digital assets, a bear market could put downward pressure on the prices of Bitcoin or other digital assets. The four-year cycle is not completely over; we will continue to see new types and levels of investors enter the market.
Coinbase: Overall optimistic. DAT and token economics will enter a 2.0 model, where token holders' economic interests are linked to platform usage, and the protocol will evolve towards value creation. Market trading volume is predicted to expand further. The total market capitalization of stablecoins is expected to reach approximately $1.2 trillion.
VanEck: The current decline may be reduced to around 40%, with the market having already priced in about 35% of the drop. The four-year cycle remains valid, and 2026 is more likely to be a year of consolidation than a surge or crash.
Galaxy Digital: Bitcoin has significant potential for both upward and downward movement in 2026, with a wide trading range reflecting short-term uncertainty. However, BTC is projected to reach $250,000 by the end of 2027. The SEC will face lawsuits from traditional market participants or industry organizations due to its innovation exemption. The US will launch over 50 spot Altcoin ETFs, with net inflows into spot crypto ETFs expected to exceed $50 billion.
21Shares: Cryptocurrency exchange-traded fund assets under management will exceed $400 billion by 2026.
JPMorgan Chase: Stablecoins will gain increasing appeal in the financial services industry, partly driven by the marginal demand for alternatives to the US dollar.
Forbes: Crypto and AI will remain intertwined, institutional adoption will progress steadily, and there will be no stagnation or decline in industry value even if the market cools down.