Michael Saylor's Strategy catches a break from MSCI, but analysts caution fight isn’t over yet

• Shares of Strategy rose 6% after MSCI decided not to exclude digital asset treasury firms from its indexes.
• The decision alleviates immediate pressure on companies holding large amounts of bitcoin but not directly operating in the blockchain sector.
• Analysts caution that the situation may not be resolved, as future MSCI rule changes could still impact firms like Strategy.

Shares of Strategy (MSTR) rose nearly 6% in post-market trading on Tuesday after MSCI said it would not move forward—for now—with plans to exclude digital asset treasury firms from its indexes.

The move eases immediate pressure on companies like Strategy, which hold large amounts of bitcoin BTC$92,783.58 on their balance sheets but don’t directly operate in the blockchain sector. A formal exclusion from MSCI indexes could have pushed institutional investors to divest, reducing demand for the stock.

Read more: Strategy surges 6% on MSCI decision not to exclude DATs from indexes

Still, analysts say the development may not be the end of the story.

“Consistent with what we've written previously, we are surprised by this clearly positive development,” wrote Lance Vitanza of TD Cowen. “What remains to be seen is whether this represents a victory for the defense or merely a stay of execution.” Vitanza rates MSTR stock a buy with a price target of $500, according to FactSet data.

Benchmark’s Mark Palmer, who is the top bull on the stock with a buy rating and $705 price target, saw the news as positive for the stock. “MSCI’s decision represents a welcome reprieve for Strategy, and it appears that the company’s arguments against the exclusion of digital asset treasury companies from the indexes may have had the intended impact."

Read more: Michael Saylor's MSTR Responds to Potential MSCI Exclusion

However, Palmer also echoed a cautious tone on the longer-term impact. "MSCI’s decision to consider the exclusion of non-operating companies from its indexes means that this episode is not yet over."

The outcome is significant for crypto treasury firms broadly, as it has implications not just for Strategy but for any company that treats digital assets as a core component of its treasury operations. If MSCI revises its rules in the future to exclude non-operating firms more broadly, Strategy could face renewed scrutiny—and potentially lose its place in key market indexes.

However, seems at least for now, it's cautious optimism for firms like Strategy.

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