Fitch on global credit risk outlook: major uncertainties remain around U.S. tariffs and trade policy, as well as the sustainability of market and fund...
TL;DR
Fitch's 2026 global credit outlook is broadly positive but faces uncertainties from U.S. trade policy, AI investment risks, and market sustainability. Key risks include trade tensions, asset bubbles, and China's economic slowdown. Investors should watch trade dynamics and AI trends for credit stability.
Fitch on global credit risk outlook: major uncertainties remain around U.S. tariffs and trade policy, as well as the sustainability of market and funding conditions
Fitch Highlights Uncertainties in Global Credit Outlook Amid U.S. Trade Policy and Market Dynamics
As of February 2026, Fitch Ratings underscores that while the global credit outlook remains broadly benign, significant uncertainties persist, particularly around U.S. trade policy, tariff measures, and the sustainability of current market conditions. These factors could test the resilience of credit markets in the coming months.
The U.S. credit environment is supported by AI-driven capital expenditures, policy stimulus, and gradually easing monetary conditions. Surging investment in information technology and wealth effects from robust equity markets are mitigating the impact of recent tariff hikes, according to Fitch analysis. However, rising concentration risks in AI-related investments have raised concerns about potential asset bubbles and their spillover effects on credit quality.
Global growth forecasts for 2026 have been revised upward, partly due to stronger-than-expected eurozone expansion. Yet, China's economic trajectory remains a critical wildcard, with slowing investment, weak consumption, and declining exports expected to weigh on global growth. Fitch notes a widening gap between elevated asset valuations and an increasingly uncertain macroeconomic outlook, raising questions about the sustainability of funding conditions.
Trade policy remains a pivotal risk. While U.S. tariff adjustments are cushioning domestic economic pressures, escalating trade tensions could reintroduce volatility. Fitch emphasizes that policy shifts—whether in trade, monetary, or fiscal domains—will likely amplify credit risks for sectors exposed to cross-border supply chains or regulatory changes.
In conclusion, Fitch's 2026 outlook balances optimism about technological and policy-driven growth with caution over systemic risks. Investors are advised to monitor evolving trade dynamics, AI investment trends, and regional economic divergences as key determinants of credit stability.
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