Suspected insiders make over $1.2 million on Polymarket by betting on U.S.'s Iran strike

• Six insider accounts on Polymarket won around $1.2 million by predicting the U.S. would strike Iran on February 28.
• The strikes caused bitcoin’s price to fall and oil futures on Hyperliquid to rise over the regional conflict’s consequences.
• The CFTC has in the past warned about potential insider trading violations, and rival prediction market Kalshi has banned and fined users before for insider trading.

Six Polymarket accounts earned roughly $1.2 million after correctly betting that the U.S. would strike Iran on Feb. 28, according to blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps.

In a post on X, blockchain analyzer Bubblemaps said most of the wallets were funded within the last 24 hours before the attack and bought “Yes” shares in the “U.S. strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?” market just hours before explosions were reported in Tehran and other cities. The accounts had no activity beyond these predictions.

The strikes followed a televised address by U.S. President Donald Trump announcing what he called “major combat operations,” targeting the country’s missile, naval, and nuclear infrastructure. The attack saw bitcoin’s price drop while oil futures on Hyperliquid rose.

One Polymarket account Bubblemaps pointed to purchased more than 560,000 “Yes” shares at about 10.8 cents each, a position that paid out near $560,000 after the market resolved at $1. Another account bought nearly 150,000 shares at 20 cents, turning a six-figure profit. All six profiles were created in February, according to Polymarket data.

Trading volume on the Feb. 28 contract reached nearly $90 million, part of more than $529 million wagered across related strike-date markets since December.

Bubblemaps published a visual map showing the six wallets clustered together and funded through similar paths.

Insider trading probes

The trades land as U.S. regulators weigh how to police insider activity on prediction markets. This week, rival platform Kalshi said it suspended and fined two users for insider trading, including a visual effects editor for MrBeast’s “Beast Games” who allegedly traded on knowledge of show outcomes.

Kalshi, which is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a designated contract market, said it has investigated about 200 cases and has more than a dozen active probes.

The CFTC issued an advisory noting the enforcement actions and warned that insider trading on event contracts may violate U.S. law. Chairman Mike Selig called exchanges the “first line of defense.” Kalshi banned the employee for two years and fined him more than $20,000. In a separate case, a political candidate was penalized for betting on his own race.

More recently, Polymarket traders have appeared to insider trade a market on insider trading itself. Blockchain sleuth ZachXBT last week teased that he would publish the findings of an investigation into a crypto platform, which turned out to be Axiom, whose employees he believed used non-public information to trade.

Teasing the investigation was coming, however, led to the creation of a Polymarket contract on which company would be named. Some clearly knew the answer to which company was under investigation, with Lookonchain identifying 12 wallets that heavily bet on Axiom ahead of the reveal.

• Many crypto social media users on X worry that Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for about 20 percent of global oil shipments, potentially sending oil prices toward $120 to $150 and triggering an inflation shock.
• Several experts argue that a full closure of the Strait is unlikely or impractical and that any oil price spike would likely be limited and temporary.
• An all-out war could still rattle markets and push bitcoin lower.

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