CICC: If Hassett becomes Fed Chair, it could cause US Treasury yields and the dollar to initially fall and then rise.

According to Mars Finance, a CICC research report on December 8th stated that under the baseline scenario, if Hassett becomes the new Federal Reserve Chairman, it could cause US Treasury yields and the US dollar to initially decline and then rise, generally benefiting US stocks. From a timeline perspective, Trump will announce the new chairman's nomination in early 2026. For Hassett, he needs to be nominated as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and confirmed by the Senate, then nominated as Chairman and confirmed again. He will officially become Chairman in May 2026 after the current Chairman Powell's term expires, and could begin leading the FOMC meeting as early as June. The first quarter of next year is a crucial period for the new chairman's nomination to influence market expectations. If Hassett's statements are overly dovish at that time, a temporary unexpected decline in US Treasury yields and the US dollar cannot be ruled out. However, as long as it doesn't significantly exceed concerns about "loss of independence," the realization of expectations coupled with the recovery of the US economy could lead to an upward trend in US Treasury yields and the US dollar. (Jinshi)