Circle's USDC volumes top Tether's USDT for first time since 2019, prompting sell-side price target hike

• Mizuho said Circle's USDC transaction volumes have reached about $2.2 trillion year-to-date in 2026, compared with $1.3 trillion for Tether's USDT.
• The shift marks the first time since 2019 that USDC activity has surpassed Tether’s, reversing years in which USDT dominated transaction flow.
• The bank raised its Circle price target to $120 from $100, citing stronger USDC usage and growth expectations in areas such as prediction markets and agentic commerce.

Circle’s (CRCL) USDC has overtaken Tether’s USDT in transaction volumes for the first time since 2019, prompting Japanese investment bank Mizuho to raise its price target for the stablecoin issuer to $120 from $100, while reiterating its neutral rating on the stock.

The shares rose 1% in early trading to $115.40 and are up roughly 95% from their February lows.

Analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins increased their Circle estimates, citing "USDC activity trends and use cases like Polymarket or agentic commerce expectations."

Stablecoins, digital tokens backed by reserves such as fiat currency or gold, serve as key payment and settlement rails in the crypto economy, particularly for trading and cross-border transfers. The sector is dominated by Tether’s USDT with a $143 billion market cap, followed by Circle’s USDC at $78 billion.

According to their Friday report, USDC has recorded about $2.2 trillion in adjusted transaction volume so far in 2026, compared with $1.3 trillion for USDT. That gives USDC roughly 64% share of adjusted volumes, a sharp reversal from 2019–2025 when Tether consistently led, and USDC averaged about a 30% share.

The analysts said the shift matters because the long-term winner among stablecoins will likely be determined by real economic usage rather than market capitalization alone. Standard Chartered expects the stablecoin market cap to reach $2 trillion by the end of 2028.

Reflecting stronger USDC activity and expanding use cases, the Mizuho analysts raised several long-term Circle forecasts. They now expect “meaningful wallets” to reach 11.7 million by 2027, up from a prior estimate of 10 million, helping lift projected USDC market capitalization to $139 billion from $123 billion.

Circle has outperformed other crypto-linked equities recently.

William Blair analysts said in a Thursday note that while recent gains could easily be linked to rising oil prices and a potentially more hawkish Federal Reserve, other factors are likely driving the move.

They pointed instead to the resilience of USDC’s market capitalization despite the broader crypto downturn, along with increasing investor recognition of Circle’s economic model and its leadership in stablecoin infrastructure.

Other analysts pointed to a positioning-driven short squeeze rather than fundamentals as the driver of the recent move higher in the shares.

While the company delivered strong growth in USDC supply, the stock’s outsized reaction post earnings was driven more by crowded short bets heading into the print than by strong financials, according to Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research.

Read more: Circle’s outperformance highlights USDC’s staying power, says bullish Wall Street analyst

• Circle's USYC token has become the largest tokenized U.S. Treasury product, with about $2.2 billion in supply, overtaking BlackRock's BUIDL fund.
• Much of USYC's recent growth is tied to its use on BNB Chain, with Binance introducing the token as off-exchange collateral for institutional derivatives trading.
• The overall market for tokenized U.S. Treasuries has surged to a fresh record of over $11 billion, up 27% this year, fueled by investor demand for yield and a place to park capital during the crypto downturn.

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