Bitcoin still hasn't hit $100,000 when adjusted for inflation: Galaxy's Alex Thorn

• Bitcoin’s October price spike above $126,000 didn’t break the $100,000 barrier when adjusted for inflation, according to Galaxy Digital's Alex Thorn.
• Measured in 2020 dollars, bitcoin's high this year was $99,848, said Thorn.
• U.S. inflation rose about 24% from 2020 to 2025, making nominal price comparisons across years potentially misleading.

Bitcoin BTC$87,639.60 may have traded above $126,000 in October, but according to Alex Thorn, global head of research at Galaxy Digital, its true value — once inflation is factored in — never crossed the six-figure mark.

“If you adjust the price of bitcoin for inflation using 2020 dollars, BTC never crossed $100K,” Thorn wrote in a post on X. “It actually topped at $99,848 in 2020 dollar terms.”

Thorn is pointing out the difference between nominal and real prices. The nominal price reflects what bitcoin cost at the time, in that year’s dollars. The real price, on the other hand, adjusts for inflation — giving a more accurate sense of the asset's purchasing power compared to a constant year like 2020.

Why choose the beginning of 2020 as a start? Thorn said that was just before the Fed's big print in response to Covid.

Possible takeaways

The data could give fodder to both bulls and bears. Bulls might say bitcoin's run higher from the 2022 lows isn't quite as parabolic as previously thought. That might thus suggest a lot less froth at that nominal $126,000 high in October and a lot more room for the bull move to continue.

Bears, on the other hand, might say bitcoin's weaker inflation-adjusted performance means the asset isn't living up to its advertising as a hedge against dollar printing. Stick with gold, they might add, though the yellow metal — on a hot run right now — has had its own issues outperforming inflation in recent decades.

2025 was defined by a stark divergence: structural progress collided with stagnant price action. Institutional milestones were reached and TVL increased across most major ecosystems, yet the majority of large-cap Layer-1 tokens finished the year with negative or flat returns.

This report analyzes the structural decoupling between network usage and token performance. We examine 10 major blockchain ecosystems, exploring protocol versus application revenues, key ecosystem narratives, mechanics driving institutional adoption, and the trends to watch as we head into 2026.

• Bitcoin was lower by a bit more than 1% to just below $88,000 on Tuesday.
• Crypto-related stocks were suffering far larger declines.
• Analysts suggest tax-loss harvesting and low liquidity are contributing to the action in crypto markets as the year ends.
• Some analysts remain cautiously optimistic about a potential rally, though significant recovery is not expected until liquidity returns in January.

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