Bitwise's Matt Hougan says: 'There is no Bitcoin conspiracy, reality is more boring'

Bitwise's Matt Hougan says: 'There is no Bitcoin conspiracy, reality is more boring'

Bitwise’s Matt Hougan Dismisses Bitcoin Conspiracy Theories, Attributes Price Decline to Structural Factors

Bitwise Asset Management’s Chief Investment Officer, Matt Hougan, has refuted claims of a coordinated market manipulation scheme behind Bitcoin’s recent price decline, emphasizing that the downturn stems from straightforward structural and psychological factors rather than conspiracy. Amid speculation pointing to firms like Jane Street, Binance, and Wintermute as potential culprits, Hougan described the narrative as “far more boring,” attributing the sell-off to long-term holders reducing exposure through spot sales, leveraged trade unwinding, and covered call strategies.

Hougan identified three primary drivers for the selling pressure: (1) the four-year crypto market cycle, (2) growing concerns over quantum computing threats to cryptographic security, and (3) a strategic reallocation of capital into artificial intelligence (AI) startups. While some industry figures, including MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor, have downplayed quantum risks, institutional caution persists. For instance, Shark Tank investor Kevin O’Leary has advised capping Bitcoin allocations at 3% until quantum vulnerabilities are addressed, while Jefferies’ Christopher Wood removed a 10% Bitcoin allocation from his model portfolio.

Technically, Bitcoin is consolidating near the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level (~$66,800), with key support at $64,730 and resistance at $69,873. Hougan noted that the market is “in the process of bottoming,” aligning with historical crypto winter patterns that typically last 13 months. He estimated the current downturn, which began in January 2025, could end by late 2026, though on-chain analyst Willy Woo suggested a potential rebound as late as Q1 2027.

Analysts agree that liquidity conditions and investor psychology—rather than manipulation—are shaping Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory. As Hougan concluded, “People want someone to blame… but the reality is far more boring than that” according to Bitwise's analysis.

(https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitwise-cio-reveals-really-behind-064940066.html): Yahoo Finance, Benzinga
(https://www.benzinga.com/crypto/cryptocurrency/26/02/50925260/there-is-no-bitcoin-conspiracy-bitwises-matt-hougan-says-reality-is-more-boring): Benzinga, Yahoo Finance