Analysis: Bitcoin is currently in a fragile equilibrium; if it falls below $85,000, the decline will be further amplified.

On December 24, CryptoQuant analyst @AxelAdlerJr posted that the net pressure tilt indicator, which measures the ratio of buying and selling pressure among short-term holders, has fallen to the bottom 5% of its three-year distribution. The current level suggests that buyers and sellers are in a state of equilibrium.

The Net Pressure Tilt indicator is calculated as the difference between the weighted selling pressure and buying pressure from short-term holders. A positive value indicates greater selling pressure, while a negative value indicates greater buying pressure. The current 24-hour Net Pressure Moving Average is 4.79, with a price of $87,324. The three-year median is 73.17, suggesting that selling pressure typically dominates during periods of growth.

Analysts point out that the market indicates a balance between buying and selling pressure from short-term holders. Historically, this balance is unstable, often turning upwards in bull markets only to revert to selling pressure. However, the current situation is more complex, with prices having been below the STH actual price by 13.9% for nearly two months, resulting in losses for short-term holders and indicating the market has entered a bear market phase. A break below $85,000 with net pressure below -15 would suggest a further significant pullback.