Federal Reserve's Hamak: November inflation may have data collection distortions; neutral interest rate may be higher than generally expected.

On December 21, Federal Reserve official Hamak stated that the positive inflation data for November may have been due to data collection distortions caused by the government shutdown in October and the first half of November, thus underestimating 12-month price growth. Although the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 2.7% year-on-year increase in the November CPI, the estimate, adjusted for measurement difficulties, brought it closer to the 2.9% or 3.0% level commonly expected by forecasters. Furthermore, Hamak's core concern regarding interest rate cuts lies in her view that the neutral interest rate is higher than generally believed, and that the economy itself has the momentum to maintain robust growth next year. The neutral interest rate cannot be directly observed, but it can be inferred from economic conditions. (Jinshi)