What happens on prediction platforms can steer traditional markets, NYSE chief says
TL;DR
NYSE President Lynn Martin says prediction markets like Polymarket are influencing traditional financial markets, citing how crypto-based platforms predicted election outcomes before others. The CFTC's Michael Selig highlights regulatory battles over these markets, while ICE's $2B investment in Polymarket signals institutional interest in blockchain forecasting tools.
Key Takeaways
- •Prediction markets like Polymarket are being used as inputs for traditional financial markets, influencing movements like S&P futures during elections.
- •Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), NYSE's parent company, invested $2 billion in Polymarket, showing institutional belief in blockchain-based forecasting.
- •CFTC Chair Michael Selig emphasizes prediction markets' national security implications and regulatory conflicts with state gaming commissions.
- •Decentralized exchange Hyperliquid launches a policy group with $29M funding to advocate for DeFi rules, led by crypto lawyer Jake Chervinsky.
PALM BEACH, Fla. — Prediction markets are starting to play a role in how traditional financial markets move, New York Stock Exchange President Lynn Martin said Wednesday at the World Liberty forum in Palm Beach.
“It was very clear for us… that prediction markets [were being used] as an input to traditional markets,” she said at the event hosted at Mar-a-Lago, pointing to a moment during the 2024 U.S. presidential election when S&P futures spiked unexpectedly. According to Martin, the move was later explained by crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket having shown Donald Trump as the likely winner before other sources did.
The comment highlights a growing awareness among institutional players of how on-chain information can influence market behavior. Unlike traditional polling or slow-moving forecasts, Polymarket’s real-time pricing offers a kind of crowdsourced probability feed that traders may find useful.
The NYSE's interest goes beyond observation. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), which owns the NYSE, made a $2 billion strategic investment in Polymarket in October, signaling that the world's largest stock exchange operator sees a future in blockchain-based forecasting tools.
CFTC Chair Michael Selig, who took office late last year, echoed Martin's comments on prediction markets' role in society, saying they have national security implications and act as a check on traditional newspaper journalism. He also referenced their role in entertainment and sports — the latter being an area state regulators are paying particular attention to.
"The states have really led this campaign of open warfare against markets that are in the jurisdiction of the CFTC," Selig said. "The CFTC has for decades [overseen] prediction markets."
He referenced the amicus brief the CFTC filed earlier this week in the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals in one case, which hours later rejected prediction market provider Kalshi's request for a stay against the state of Nevada's efforts to shutter its sports-related prediction markets.
"We're going to fight this, we're going to make sure our markets are free and fair and have integrity," he said. "We won't have state gaming commissions telling us how to regulate our markets."
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