Polymarket reports that the probability of Trump not announcing a Federal Reserve chair nominee this year has risen to 91%.
TL;DR
Polymarket data shows a 91% probability that Trump will not announce a Federal Reserve chair nominee by year-end, with candidate odds dropping and delays expected.
Tags
According to data from Polymarket, as reported by Odaily Odaily, the market now expects a 91% probability that Trump will not announce his nominee for the next Federal Reserve Chair before December 31, 2025. Among the potential candidates to be announced this year, Kevin Hassett's chances of winning have dropped to 4%, while Chris Waller and Kevin Warsh have probabilities of 3% and 2%, respectively.
Despite high market expectations that Trump would secure the leadership of the Federal Reserve earlier than anticipated, current betting trends suggest that the appointment process may be delayed more than expected.