Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Broken: VanEck
TL;DR
VanEck reports Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle has broken due to institutional flows and ETFs, leading to a cautious near-term crypto outlook. The firm is more bullish on AI stocks and gold, which benefit from policy clarity and central bank demand.
Key Takeaways
- •Bitcoin's four-year cycle is broken, with institutional participation and macro flows now outweighing halving narratives.
- •VanEck has a cautious near-term outlook for crypto but remains internally divided, with some analysts more constructive.
- •The firm signals a 'risk-on' stance for traditional assets like AI stocks and gold, citing fiscal/monetary policy clarity.
- •Gold is viewed as a 'leading global currency' and portfolio stabilizer, driven by central bank demand and political uncertainty.
- •Potential threats to Fed independence could accelerate diversification into Bitcoin and gold as non-sovereign assets.
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VanEck’s crypto thesis remains divided in the near term for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, while issuing a clear risk-on signal for traditional assets such as AI stocks and gold.
In a Tuesday investment note, the U.S. asset manager highlighted that Bitcoin’s extended bull run has broken its traditional four-year cycle, complicating short-term signals and supporting a “more cautious near-term outlook over the next three to six months” for the crypto sector.
— VanEck (@vaneck_us) January 12, 2026
Bitcoin is trading near $92,000, up 1.8% on the day and down around 1.9% over the past week, according to CoinGecko data.
“The idea of a clean four-year Bitcoin cycle has clearly broken down,” Rachel Lin, CEO of SynFutures, told Decrypt. “Institutional participation, ETFs, and macro-driven flows now matter more than halving narratives alone.”
However, VanEck’s cautious house view is not unanimous.
The firm’s head of digital assets research, Matthew Sigel, and portfolio manager David Schassler are noted as remaining “more constructive on the immediate cycle,” underscoring an active internal debate.
“Investors are adjusting their positioning, increasing allocations to spot Bitcoin and derivatives as part of broader portfolio strategies rather than timing purely cyclical peaks and troughs,” Gracy Chen, CEO at Bitget, told Decrypt.
This crypto divergence stands in contrast to the firm's clearer constructive stance on other risk assets, which it attributes to a rare “clarity around fiscal policy, monetary direction, and major investment themes.”
Green signal for traditional markets
AI-related stocks look “more attractive today” than at their October peaks following a recent correction, the post stated.
Similarly, the firm sees gold re-emerging as a “leading global currency,” driven by central bank demand. While acknowledging gold appears “somewhat extended” technically, VanEck views pullbacks as a “good opportunity” to add exposure.
“Gold remains a constructive allocation... more about stability and capital preservation than outsized upside at this stage,” Lin said.
Chen echoed that gold serves as a “portfolio stabilizer,” but noted returns will likely “favor investors who manage exposure dynamically.”
Gold is currently trading at around $4,615, near its all-time high. On prediction market Myriad, owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, users place an 82% chance on gold hitting $5,000 before Ethereum, up from 68% this time last week.
The analysis arrives amid heightened political uncertainty, including a DOJ lawsuit against Fed Chair Powell that questions central bank independence—a factor that could reshape the very landscape VanEck outlines.
“If Fed independence is seriously questioned, it could accelerate diversification into non-sovereign assets,” Lin said. In that scenario, Bitcoin, in particular, “stands to benefit alongside gold,” potentially redefining its status as a monetary hedge.