Bitcoin steadies near $67,000 as traders pay for crash protection

• Bitcoin stabilized around $67,000, avoiding a further breakdown for the moment, while altcoins lagged.
• Policy talks at the White House on the crypto market structure bill showed incremental progress, but strains in private credit markets and potential U.S. military action against Iran loom large over risky assets
• Crypto derivatives traders are playing defense, buying downside protection against a potential drop, the head of OTC at Wintermute noted.

Bitcoin BTC$67,852.62 found its footing on Thursday, stabilizing above a key technical level after briefly slipping below $66,000 in early U.S. trading. The largest cryptocurrency recently changed hands at around $67,000, up roughly 1% over the past 24 hours.

The CoinDesk 20 Index lagged, with ether (ETH), XRP, BNB, DOGE$0.1001 and solana (SOL) flat to slightly lower during the same period, perhaps a signal of continued caution in altcoins amid shaky crypto markets.

Crypto-related stocks climbed modestly higher across the board, with bitcoin miners CleanSpark (CLSK) and MARA (MARA) standing out with 6% gains. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were 0.3% and 0.6% lower, respectively.

On the policy front, there were tentative signs of progress on the digital asset market structure bill. As CoinDesk’s Jesse Hamilton reported, White House-hosted talks between crypto industry representatives and bankers yielded incremental movement, though no compromise has yet emerged.

At the same time, cracks from the recent crypto downturn are still surfacing. Chicago-based crypto lender Blockfills, as CoinDesk reported, is exploring a sale after enduring a $75 million lending loss during the recent price crash and having temporarily suspended client deposits and withdrawals last week. With crypto prices tumbling sharply in recent months, investors have been bracing for potential blowups like those of Celsius and FTX in 2022. So far, however, the fallout appears contained — on the one hand, tempering worst-case fears, but on the other, avoiding the kind of complete washout that set the stage for the bottom of that brutal bear market and the beginning of the 2023-25 bull run.

Still, risks outside the crypto sphere continue to loom that leave investors hesitant to take risks.

Worries about mounting stress in credit markets flared up after private-equity company Blue Owl (OWL) permanently curbed redemptions in its $1.7 billion retail-focused private credit fund. OWL fell 6% on Thursday, while the shares of other major private credit managers, including Apollo Global (APO), Ares Capital (ARES) and Blackstone (BX) slid more than 5%.

Geopolitical tensions remain another overhang, with the prospect of U.S. military action against Iran still in play amid an ongoing regional buildup. Crude oil rallied another 2.8% over $66 per barrel, hitting its highest price since August.

Traders play defense

That caution is reflected in crypto derivatives markets, Jake Ostrovskis, head of OTC at trading firm Wintermute, pointed out. Many traders are buying downside protection while limiting upside participation, he noted, which means they are effectively paying for insurance against another drop while capping potential gains in a breakout to the upside.

The average U.S. bitcoin ETF cost basis now sits near $84,000, leaving a large share of ETF investors underwater — nursing a 20% paper loss on average — and potentially vulnerable to "capitulation selling" if prices slide further.

Still, total ETF holdings remain within about 5% of their peak in bitcoin terms, suggesting institutions are trimming exposure rather than rushing for the exits.

• Facing investor calls for redemptions, private-equity company Blue Owl Capital (OWL) late this week said it is selling $1.4 billion in assets.
• Former Pimco chief Mohamed El-Erian suggested the news was a "canary-in-the-coal-mine" moment similar to 2007's collapse of two Bear Stearns hedge funds that presaged the global financial crisis.
• The U.S. government's and Federal Reserve's ultimate response — bank bailouts, ZIRP and QE — helped birth Bitcoin in early 2009 and foster its run from an idea to a $1 trillion asset.

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