Indonesia Jan. coal exports at 29.54M tons
TL;DR
Indonesia's coal exports surged 24% in early 2024, reaching 90 million tons in January-February, driven by strong demand from China, India, and other Asian markets. This positions the country to potentially exceed its 2023 record, with growth linked to regional industrial activity and potential economic recovery in China.
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Indonesia Jan. coal exports at 29.54M tons
Indonesia’s 2024 Coal Exports Begin Strong Amid Global Demand
Indonesia’s coal exports in early 2024 have surged, with combined shipments for January and February reaching approximately 90 million metric tons—a 24% increase compared to the same period in 2023, according to ship tracking data. This growth positions the Southeast Asian nation, the world’s top thermal coal exporter, to potentially surpass its 2023 record of 504.6 million tons by year-end.
Key markets driving this growth include China, India, South Korea, and the Philippines. China accounted for 33% of shipments through February, though volumes to the country were 9% lower than the first two months of 2023. However, unconfirmed cargo destinations—estimated at 21 million tons—suggest potential upward revisions, with many likely bound for China. India emerged as a strong performer, with 13.5 million tons shipped through February, outpacing 2023 levels and reflecting its status as a major importer of Indonesian coal.
Vietnam also showed promise, with exports on track to rise by 600,000 tons year-to-date, building on its record 17.6 million-ton import total. Analysts attribute this trend to regional industrial activity and energy demand, particularly if China’s economy rebounds from its post-2022 slump. Stimulus measures anticipated in Beijing’s upcoming parliamentary sessions could further boost construction and manufacturing sectors, indirectly increasing coal demand across Asia’s supply chains.
Despite early gains, some markets, including South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines, saw slight declines in shipments compared to 2023, though these may also adjust as ship manifests are finalized. The trajectory of global coal demand will depend on macroeconomic factors, including China’s property sector recovery and regional industrial output.
For now, Indonesia’s coal industry remains a critical player in the global energy market, with its export volumes closely watched as an indicator of Asia’s evolving energy dynamics.
Reporting by Gavin Maguire; Editing by Cynthia Osterman. Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
