U.S. crude oil futures settle at $68.69/bbl, up 11 cents, 0.16 pct

U.S. crude oil futures settled at $68.69 per barrel on July 2, 2026, up 11 cents, or 0.16%, following a volatile month marked by geopolitical developments and shifting supply dynamics. The price reflects a modest rebound after a 28.55% decline over the past month, though 2.66% higher than a year ago.

The market continues to grapple with the implications of increased oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which have pushed flows past 10 million barrels per day. The United Arab Emirates has restored exports to over 3.9 million barrels daily, contributing to a surplus amid ongoing emergency reserve releases and ad hoc Saudi sales to Asia. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil stockpiles fallen to their lowest levels since March 2025 after twelve consecutive weeks of drawdowns.

Looking ahead, analysts expect crude oil prices to rise to $75.23 per barrel by the end of the quarter and $81.74 in 12 months. However, the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) assumes continued disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz through the second half of 2026, with a gradual resumption of flows expected in the third quarter. Under this scenario, global oil inventories are projected to remain under pressure, with Brent crude averaging $105 per barrel in June and July before declining to $79 per barrel in 2027.