Fidelity 2026 Outlook: More countries may include Bitcoin in their reserves in the future; whether the four-year cycle will end remains to be seen.
TL;DR
Fidelity's 2026 outlook suggests more countries may add Bitcoin to reserves, potentially boosting prices, but warns of risks from corporate sales and uncertain four-year cycles. Long-term investors may still find opportunities, while short-term gains require caution.
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On January 3, Fidelity stated in its "2026 Crypto Market Outlook" that investors looking to enter the market for short-term gains should exercise caution, but for investors focused on long-term holding, it may not be too late.
Chris Kuiper, Vice President of Research at Fidelity Digital Assets, points out: "Fidelity Digital Assets believes that, based on game theory principles, more countries may buy Bitcoin in the future. If more countries include Bitcoin in their foreign exchange reserves, other countries may face increased pressure to follow suit, as they may feel competitive pressure. From a simple supply and demand economics perspective, any additional demand for Bitcoin could drive up prices. But the key lies in the scale of the incremental demand and whether other investors are selling or holding."
Corporate purchases of crypto assets have increased market demand, helping to boost asset prices. However, investors should also be aware of the associated risks. Kuiper cautioned, "If these companies choose or are forced to sell some of their digital assets, for example, when a bear market arrives, this could certainly put downward pressure on the price of Bitcoin or other digital assets."
Kuiper believes the four-year cycle hasn't completely disappeared because the fear and greed that drive it haven't dissipated. The current price decline could be the start of a new bear market, or it could simply be a correction within a bull market. Whether the cycle predictions will come true remains to be seen, and a clear answer may not be available until later in 2026.
Kuiper stated that while cryptocurrencies still face numerous uncertainties, one thing is becoming increasingly clear: the crypto market is entering a new paradigm. "We continue to see entirely new types and tiers of investors entering the market, and I believe this trend will continue into 2026. Traditional fund managers and investors have begun buying digital assets like Bitcoin, but I think the scale of funds they may bring to this space is currently only scratching the surface."