Bitcoin heads for its worst Q4 since 2018 as traders see further fatigue

• Bitcoin's price is nearing $90,000, offering a short-term boost to the crypto market, but analysts remain cautious about a significant recovery.
• The total crypto market capitalization has surpassed $3 trillion, yet analysts warn that the rebound may be driven by exhaustion rather than renewed confidence.
• Bitcoin remains about 30% below its 2025 peak, with the market still vulnerable to sharp reversals, particularly during U.S. trading hours.

Bitcoin’s push back toward near the $90,000 mark is giving the crypto market a short-term lift, but few analysts see it as a meaningful turning point after one of the weakest second halves in recent years.

Major tokens remained range-bound in the past 24 hours, with xrp, ether, Solana’s SOL, Cardano’s ada and DOGE$0.1304 rising as much as 2%. A decline in Aave’s AAVE continued as its governance tussle rages on, leaving it as the worst performing token with a 7% drop.

Total crypto market capitalization has once again moved above $3 trillion, a psychologically important level that has acted as a key zone between buyers and sellers throughout the past month. While prices are higher on the day, analysts caution that the rebound reflects exhaustion rather than renewed conviction.

Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, said the market’s recent strength is largely technical and driven by a low base after weeks of selling.

“The crypto market is making a new attempt at growth, but this is not yet a recovery,” Kuptsikevich said, noting that sentiment has improved only modestly. The market’s fear and greed index has climbed to 25, suggesting traders may be stepping away from extreme pessimism, but not embracing risk.

Bitcoin was trading near $88,000 in Asian morning hours Tuesday, pressing against the upper end of a range that has held since early last week. Kuptsikevich warned that short-term momentum could prove misleading, especially given the broader context. Bitcoin remains roughly 30% below its 2025 peak and is trading below levels seen at the start of the year.

“Attempts to bring year-to-date performance back to zero are little consolation,” he said in an email, adding that disappointment has replaced the optimism that dominated markets earlier this year.

Seasonal patterns reinforce that caution. Data from CoinGlass shows bitcoin is down more than 22% so far in the fourth quarter, making 2025 one of the weakest year-end periods outside of major bear markets.

While the fourth quarter has historically produced some of bitcoin’s strongest rallies, it has also delivered sharp drawdowns during years marked by tightening liquidity and macro uncertainty.

The market remains vulnerable to sharp reversals, particularly during U.S. trading hours. Recent sessions have repeatedly seen price gains from Asian and Europe sessions fade as North American markets open.

2025 was defined by a stark divergence: structural progress collided with stagnant price action. Institutional milestones were reached and TVL increased across most major ecosystems, yet the majority of large-cap Layer-1 tokens finished the year with negative or flat returns.

This report analyzes the structural decoupling between network usage and token performance. We examine 10 major blockchain ecosystems, exploring protocol versus application revenues, key ecosystem narratives, mechanics driving institutional adoption, and the trends to watch as we head into 2026.

• VanEck data shows that in the past 30 days bitcoin’s hashrate dropped by the most since April 2024
• Hashrate declines are historically aligned with miner capitulation and markets closer to local bottoms than tops.
• According to VanEck, periods of negative 90-day hashrate growth have delivered positive 180-day bitcoin returns 77% of the time.

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