Bitcoin climbs the wall of worry amid escalating Iran war and stock market losses

• Bitcoin has risen about 7% since the Middle East conflict escalated on Feb. 28, outperforming the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, gold and silver, while holding steady near $70,000 even as Brent crude briefly pushed back toward $100 per barrel.
• Despite the stable price action, sentiment remains weak, with bitcoin funding rates negative since early March and the crypto fear and greed index in extreme fear territory, highlighting a disconnect between market positioning and price resilience.

Bitcoin BTC$69,873.58 remains pinned around $70,000, showing impressive price stability even as market sentiment remains deeply pessimistic amid the Iran war and oil price volatility.

Crypto’s fear and greed index, a widely tracked sentiment indicator, has persistently signaled extreme fear in recent weeks, suggesting traders remain cautious despite the lack of a major price breakdown.

Market positioning also paints a dour picture. Annualized funding rates for bitcoin perpetual futures have been negative since early March, reflecting a growing bias for bearish short bets. The current stretch marks the longest period of negative funding since April 2025, when bitcoin ultimately formed a market bottom, around $76,000.

This is consistent with fear on Wall Street, where the VIX index jumped to 25 this week, its highest in over a year.

Yet bitcoin’s price action has been notably resilient. Since the escalation of the Middle East conflict on Feb. 28, the largest cryptocurrency has gained roughly 7%. That compares favorably with other major assets over the same period. The Nasdaq 100 has been largely steady while the S&P 500 has dropped about 1%, gold has slipped roughly 3% and silver has fallen nearly 9%.

This is in addition, to brent crude briefly pushing back above $100 per barrel earlier today amid ongoing tensions in the region.

The contrast was also visible during Wednesday’s U.S. trading session. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) traded 1% higher. While major equity benchmarks were in the red, including the S&P 500 (SPX), the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), the Russell 2000 (IWM) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI), highlighting bitcoin’s relative resilience during U.S. market hours.

The outperformance likely stems from big traders and institutions snapping up coins in privately negotiated transactions, keeping demand steady.

For now, bitcoin appears to be performing better than the market mood surrounding it, holding steady despite persistent fear across the broader financial landscape.

• Wallets holding 1–10 BTC and 10–100 BTC are in heavy distribution, according to Glassnode data, driving the overall Accumulation Trend Score down to 0.04.
• Bitcoin nevertheless continues to hold in the $70,000 area, outperforming stocks and gold since the Iran war began.

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