Coinbase: Excessive speculation has been curbed; low leverage means the risk of a pre-Lunar New Year crash is reduced.

According to Mars Finance, Coinbase Institutional stated that the turmoil in November reshaped the market landscape: open interest in BTC/ETH/SOL perpetual contracts decreased by 16% month-over-month; US spot ETFs saw $3.5 billion in BTC outflows and $1.4 billion in ETH outflows; BTC perpetual contract funding rates briefly fell below 2σ of the 90-day average before recovering. These changes foreshadow a more stable December, and the institution believes cautious optimism is warranted because excessive speculation has been curbed, and the systemic leverage ratio tracking purely speculative positions has stabilized at around 4%-5% of total market capitalization, down from approximately 10% this summer. Lower leverage implies a healthier market structure and reduces the risk of a significant decline before the end of the year.