QCP: Dovish comments from the Federal Reserve boosted the market, raising expectations for a December rate cut to 75%.
TL;DR
Dovish Fed comments boosted Bitcoin, raising December rate cut odds to 75%. Despite weak technicals, traders hedge for a rebound, with options targeting 104K and reduced oversold risks. Holiday and ETF flows will test the rally's sustainability.
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ChainCatcher reports that a QCP briefing indicates Bitcoin (BTC) is showing initial signs of recovery following dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials Williams and Miran on Friday. Market expectations for a December rate cut have surged from 30-40% last Thursday to 75%. Despite a recent drop of over 30% and breaking several key support levels, leaving the technical picture weak, the derivatives market shows traders are hedging their bets: protecting against further declines while also maintaining exposure to a potential year-end rebound.
The biggest pain point for year-end contracts in the options market is the 104K price level, with open interest hitting a record high. In the perpetual contract market, leveraged long positions have been largely cleared, and funding rates have turned negative, potentially mitigating further oversold risk. This week's Thanksgiving holiday will test the sustainability of the BTC rally, and the market is also closely watching whether ETF flows will reverse after weeks of record outflows.