The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in January is 95%, while the probability of a rate cut is only 5%.

According to Mars Finance, citing Jinshi News, prior to the release of the US November PCE data, CME's "FedWatch" indicated a 5% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January and a 95% probability of maintaining the current rate. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut was 15.4%, the probability of maintaining the current rate was 84.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut was 0.6%.