Data: Leading US economic indicators continue to deteriorate, indicating that the US economy is already in recession.
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TL;DR
US leading economic indicators have declined for four consecutive years, with the ratio to coincident indicators hitting a low since 2008, suggesting the economy is already in recession based on historical patterns.
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US economyrecession indicatorsleading economic indexeconomic dataConference Board
According to Mars Finance, on December 6th, KobeissiLetter released data showing that the US leading economic indicators continue to deteriorate. The ratio of the leading economic indicator to the coincident economic indicator has fallen to 0.85, the lowest level since 2008, marking the fourth consecutive year of decline. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) tracks forward-looking data, including consumer expectations, new manufacturing orders, weekly working hours, and initial jobless claims. Meanwhile, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI) measures current economic conditions in real time, such as non-farm payrolls. Historically, every time this ratio has fallen this sharply, the US economy has been in recession.