ICE Brent crude May futures settle at $85.41/bbl

ICE Brent crude May futures settle at $85.41/bbl

ICE Brent crude May futures settled at $85.41 per barrel on March 5, 2026, reflecting heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and disrupted global oil supplies according to commodity data. The price surged over 3% during the session, nearing its highest level since July 2024, amid escalating hostilities between the U.S. and Iran, including a reported U.S. submarine strike on an Iranian warship. Open interest for the May 2026 contract stood at 604,254 contracts, indicating sustained market attention.

The conflict has halted commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transit chokepoint, with Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warning of further escalation. Efforts to stabilize markets, including U.S. proposals for naval escorts and political risk insurance, have failed to alleviate investor concerns. Meanwhile, U.S. crude inventories rose by 3.5 million barrels to 439.3 million, offering some buffer against supply shocks.

Brent crude has climbed 23.86% over the past month and 21.35% year-to-date, driven by regional instability and supply constraints. Analysts project the price to trade near $80.77 by the end of the quarter, with a 12-month forecast of $88.47. The May 2026 contract, set to expire on March 31, remains a key benchmark for global oil markets.

Factors influencing the price include OPEC's production policies, OECD oil storage levels, and the inverse correlation between the U.S. dollar and oil prices. As tensions persist, markets remain sensitive to developments in the Persian Gulf, with further volatility anticipated.