Macroeconomic Outlook for Next Week: Fed Rate Cut a Certainty, Hawk-Dove Debate Draws Attention

According to Mars Finance, citing Jinshi, the Federal Reserve's final interest rate meeting of the year will be held next week, with the interest rate decision announced at 3:00 AM (UTC+8) on Thursday, followed by a monetary policy press conference by Fed Chair Powell at 3:30 AM (UTC+8). According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut next week is 84%. Next week's Fed meeting is expected to be one of the most contentious in recent years, with investors focusing on the disagreement among policymakers regarding the prospect of a rate cut and the signals Fed Chair Powell will send regarding the future direction of policy. Five of the 12 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) expressed opposition or skepticism towards further monetary easing, while three members of the Board of Governors favored a rate cut. Since 2019, the FOMC has not seen three or more dissenting votes at any meeting, making the dissenting voices closely watched. Key macroeconomic data and events are as follows: Tuesday: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announces interest rate decision and RBA Governor Bullock holds a monetary policy press conference; Wednesday: US Q3 Labor Cost Index quarter-on-quarter rate; Bank of Canada announces interest rate decision; Thursday: Federal Reserve FOMC announces interest rate decision and summary of economic projections, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell holds a monetary policy press conference; US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 6; Friday: Federal Reserve releases US household financial health data from its Q3 2025 Flow of Funds report; 2026 FOMC voting member and Philadelphia Fed President Paulson speaks on the economic outlook; 2026 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Hammarck speaks; Chicago Fed President Goolsby participates in a moderator dialogue before the Chicago Fed's 39th Annual Economic Outlook Symposium. Market Closure Notice: The New York Stock Exchange will close early on Wednesday at 2:00 AM Beijing time; US stocks, stocks in many European countries, South Korean stocks, and Australian stocks will all be closed on Thursday. Trading in precious metals, US oil, foreign exchange, and stock index futures contracts on the CME Group, as well as Brent crude oil futures contracts on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), will be suspended for the entire day.