IOSG Founding Partner: The current market is not at the peak of a bull market, but rather a period of institutional accumulation; we are optimistic ab...
TL;DR
2025년 암호화폐 시장은 기관 투자자 중심으로 구조가 전환되었으며, 현재는 '기관 축적기'로 볼 수 있습니다. 2026년 상반기는 정책 호재와 기관 배분으로 긍정적 전망, 하반기는 선거 불확실성으로 변동성 증가가 예상됩니다.
Key Takeaways
- •2025년 암호화폐 시장은 기관 투자자 비중 24% 증가와 개인 투자자 66% 감소로 구조적 전환을 겪었습니다.
- •현재 시장은 '강세장 정점'이 아닌 '기관 축적기'로, 기관은 가격보다 사이클을 보고 포지션을 구축 중입니다.
- •2026년 상반기는 정책 호재와 기관 배분으로 BTC 목표가 $120,000-$150,000, 하반기는 중간선거로 인한 변동성 증가가 예상됩니다.
- •장기적으로 ETF 인프라 개선과 규제 명확화가 다음 상승 기반을 마련하며, 시장 구조 변화로 새로운 가격 결정력이 재구축됩니다.
According to ChainCatcher, Jocy, founding partner of IOSG, posted on social media, "2025 was the darkest year for the crypto market, but also the dawn of the institutional era. This was a fundamental shift in market structure, yet most people were still viewing the new era with the logic of the old cycles. A review of the 2025 crypto market reveals a paradigm shift from retail speculation to institutional allocation. Core data shows that institutions hold 24% of the market, while retail investors exited by 66%, marking a complete turnover in the crypto market. Although BTC fell by 5.4% in 2025, it reached an all-time high of $126,080. Market dominance has shifted from retail to institutions. Institutions are continuously building positions at 'high levels' because they are not looking at price, but at the cycle. Retail investors are selling, and institutions are buying. The current situation is not the 'top of the bull market,' but rather the 'institutional accumulation period.'"
The midterm elections will be held in November 2026. Historically, policies tend to precede decisions in election years. Therefore, the investment logic should be: the first half of 2026 will be a policy honeymoon period, with institutional allocations favoring the market; the second half of 2026 will see increased political uncertainty and volatility. However, risks remain, including Federal Reserve policy, a strong dollar, potential delays in market structure legislation, continued selling of LTH bonds, and uncertainty surrounding the midterm election results. But on the other hand, risks present opportunities; when everyone is bearish, it is often the best time to position oneself.
Short term (3-6 months): Trading range of $87,000-$95,000, with institutions continuing to build positions.
Mid-term (First Half of 2026): Driven by both policy and institutional factors, with a target of $120,000-$150,000.
Long term (second half of 2026): Increased volatility, depending on election results and policy continuity.
This is not the top of a cycle, but the beginning of a new one. 2025 marks an acceleration in the institutionalization of the crypto market. Despite a negative annual return for BTC, ETF investors demonstrated strong HODL resilience. While 2025 appears to be the worst year for crypto, it actually saw: the largest supply turnover, the strongest institutional allocation intentions, the clearest policy support, and the most extensive infrastructure improvements. Although prices fell by 5%, ETFs saw $25 billion in inflows, indicating optimism for the first half of 2026. Key points to watch in 2026 include: progress on market structure legislation, the possibility of expanding the strategic Bitcoin reserve, and policy continuity after the midterm elections. In the long term, the improved ETF infrastructure and regulatory clarity lay the foundation for the next surge. When the market structure fundamentally changes, old valuation logic becomes invalid, and new pricing power is rebuilt.