ICE U.K. nat gas Apr. futures settle at 137.42 pence/therm

ICE U.K. nat gas Apr. futures settle at 137.42 pence/therm

ICE U.K. natural gas April futures settled at 137.42 pence per therm on March 6, 2026, reflecting heightened volatility in global energy markets driven by geopolitical tensions and constrained supply flows. The price surge follows escalating conflicts in the Middle East, where U.S. military actions and Iranian countermeasures have disrupted liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments through the Strait of Hormuz—a critical chokepoint for 20% of global LNG trade. Although direct strikes on gas infrastructure have not been reported, shipping suspensions and heightened geopolitical risks have intensified competition for alternative supplies, including Norwegian gas flows to the U.K..

U.K. gas inventories remain vulnerable, with storage levels below 30% as of late February, exacerbating market sensitivity to supply shocks. The April futures contract, traded on ICE Futures Europe, is standardized for physical delivery of 1,000 therms per day, with settlement based on a weighted average price during a 10-minute window at 16:05–16:15 London time. Last trading ceased two business days before the delivery period, and contracts are settled via kilowatt-hour transfers through National Grid's National Balancing Point (NBP) virtual hub.

Historically, U.K. natural gas prices reached an all-time high of 800 pence per therm in March 2022 but remain 5.48% below year-ago levels as of March 2, 2026. Analysts project prices to stabilize at 98.49 pence per therm by quarter-end, with longer-term expectations of 114.40 pence per therm in 12 months. The current price surge underscores the sector's exposure to geopolitical instability and the fragility of global LNG logistics amid constrained storage capacity.