Bitcoin has a new line in the sand. Thursday’s core PCE could stress test it.

• Bitcoin has repeatedly bounced near $59,000 this month, establishing it as a key support level that traders need to watch more closely than the round $60,000 mark.
• Thursday’s U.S. core PCE inflation report is expected to show the fastest price growth since late 2023.
• A hotter-than-expected reading may add to dollar's strength, sending risk assets, including BTC lower.

The bitcoin BTC$61,107.75 market has found a new support level, and Thursday's U.S. core PCE release may test its mettle.

That level is $59,000, which has emerged as strong support, capping downside moves in recent days.

A support level in trading is a specific price point or range where a downtrend tends to pause or reverse, paving the way for a bounce as concentrated buying interest becomes strong enough to counter selling pressure. However, a single instance does not make a level a strong support. Traders typically look for at least two instances of price holding or bouncing from a specific level before identifying it as new support.

On Wednesday, as the sell-off gathered pace, prices fell to nearly $59,000 before bouncing back to $61,000 overnight. As of this writing, BTC is trading near $60,800, according to CoinDesk data. A similar move occurred earlier this month on June 5, when the sell-off lost steam near $59,000, paving the way for a bounce to $67,000 in the following days.

That explains why $59,000 is now the key support, a new line in the sand that bulls need to defend to avoid a deeper slide.

The focus on this new support stems from the impending Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) release on Thursday at 8:30 ET. The headline PCE is forecast to have risen 4.1% year-on-year in May, the highest level since April 2023, according to FactSet. That would once again place inflation well above the Fed’s 2% target.
The core PCE, the Fed’s preferred measure (which excludes volatile food and energy components), is expected to have increased by 3.3%-3.4%, the highest since October 2023.

A hotter-than-expected core PCE would confirm that the inflation resurgence is real and not just a temporary side effect of energy market disruptions caused by the war in Iran earlier this year. This could reinforce expectations for Fed rate hikes, adding to bullish momentum in the already buoyant dollar index – which is trading at its highest level since April 2025 – and potentially weighing on stocks and cryptocurrencies.

That's the scenario for which traders might want to note that $59,000, rather than $60,000, is the key support to watch.

The bullish scenario? If the core PCE comes in below estimates, that could ease rate-hike fears, slow the DXY’s rise, and embolden BTC bulls to capitalize on the bounce from $59,000.

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