"Federal Reserve mouthpiece": There are still insufficient reasons for another rate cut in January.
AI Summary1 min read
TL;DR
A key Fed reporter says November's unemployment rise supports past rate cuts but isn't enough to justify another cut in January, with futures still predicting cuts in 2026 and a slight rise in January cut probability.
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Federal Reserveinterest ratesunemploymenteconomic datarate cuts
According to Mars Finance, on December 16th, Nick Timiraos, a Wall Street Journal reporter often referred to as a "Federal Reserve mouthpiece," analyzed today's US employment data, stating that the unemployment rate rose to 4.564% in November, an increase of 12 basis points from 4.440% in September. Powell stated last week that the Fed believes its policy settings will stabilize the unemployment rate, or "only rise by one or two percentage points." The new employment report is sufficient to validate the Fed's rate cuts to date, but this alone is not enough to trigger panic leading to a rate cut in January. Following the release of today's US employment and retail sales data, US interest rate futures still predict two rate cuts in 2026, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in January rising slightly from 24.4% to 31%.