The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in January is 95%.

According to CME's "FedWatch" on January 20, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 5%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 95%. By March, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 20.7%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 78.4%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 0.9%.