Bitcoin rebound fades as software and private equity rout drags stocks and crypto lower

• Bitcoin slipped back to $65,400 during U.S. trading Monday after it failed to hold a modest overnight rebound.
• U.S. stocks were sharply lower, with the embattled software sector — of late perfectly correlated with crypto — down another 5% and private-equity shares continuing to plunge.
• Bitcoin is acting like a "high-beta risk play," not "digital gold" as investors pull back from speculative assets, LMAX strategist said.

Bitcoin's BTC$64,074.08 very modest rebound from its steep overnight selloff quickly fizzled out during U.S. morning trading on Monday as broader risk markets turned sharply lower.

Trading at $65,400 near the noon hour on the east coast, bitcoin was down 35% over the past 24 hours.

The action occurred as U.S. equities tumbled. The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were each lower by more than 1%, led by renewed weakness in software stocks and private-equity names.

The iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV) sank another 5% to a fresh 52-week low and is now down nearly 35% since October amid concerns that generative AI tools could disrupt traditional software business models. Whether true or not, current market thinking is that crypto is just software, and price movements of bitcoin and IGV of late have been nearly perfectly correlated.

Adding to that bearish theme are continuing worries that AI could be leading markets to the cusp of a major negative credit event similar to that of 2008's global financial crisis. This is currently reflected in private equity share prices. These companies have heavy exposure to the afore-mentioned software sector. Blow Owl Capital (OWL) — which last week sold assets in an attempt to mollify liquidity-seeking investors — is lower by another 3.5% Monday and 32% year-to-date. BlackStone (BX), Ares Management (ARES), and Apollo Global Management (APO) all added to their sizable recent losses, falling between 6% and 8%.

Crypto often trades as a high-beta proxy for tech and broader liquidity conditions, and Monday’s weakness reflected that dynamic. While BTC has so far held above the worst of its early February lows, it still trades in a tight range between $60,000 and $70,000 as risk appetite remains fragile.

Added to all of this is uncertainty about global tariffs after the Supreme Court clamped down on President Trump's previous use of sweeping levies, Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group, said in a note.

"This sparked a classic risk-off environment," Kruger said. "Investors pulled back from speculative assets like crypto, with bitcoin behaving more like a high-beta risk play than 'digital gold.'"

• Anthropic announced that its Claude Code can automate COBOL modernization, sending IBM lower by 11%, the latest victim to AI-related business model threats.
• Crypto prices suffered along with the major averages and software sector, with bitcoin pulling back to $64,000.

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