4E: Bitcoin dips to $90,000, market prepares for a sharp drop

According to Mars Finance, 4E observes that Bitcoin is entering a period of extreme panic, having fallen below $91,000 on the morning of November 18th, exhibiting a freefall decline. Protective demand in the options market has surged dramatically, with total bets on put options expiring at the end of November exceeding $740 million, targeting strike prices of $90,000, $85,000, and even $80,000, indicating traders are preparing for a deeper drop. Chris Newhouse, Research Director at Ergonia, points out that positions bought over the past six months are largely deeply underwater, and the buying power of bullish sentiment has clearly weakened. CoinMarketCap's sentiment index shows the market is in a state of "extreme panic," with many investors suffering heavy losses and unable to add to their positions, yet unwilling to cut losses, creating downward pressure on prices. The pressure is most concentrated on so-called "crypto treasury companies." Companies that have accumulated large amounts of cryptocurrency this year have become the focus of sell-off risk. Although Michael Saylor's Strategy continues to increase its BTC holdings by $835 million, other peers are facing balance sheet pressure and are forced to consider selling assets. Greg Magadini of Amberdata stated that this selling pressure has particularly impacted Ethereum, with large ETH treasury firms generally operating at a loss. ETH has fallen to $2,975, a 24% drop from early October. Macroeconomic factors have further worsened risk appetite. Cooling expectations of a Fed rate cut and discussions about an AI bubble are jointly suppressing the market. Kaiko analysts emphasize that these two factors will continue to be major headwinds until the end of the year. Since early October, the crypto market has wiped out approximately $19 billion in market capitalization, with futures open interest continuing to decline, and holdings of small-cap tokens like Solana halved. Kraken economist Perfumo points out that the current market panic stems more from macroeconomic anxiety than from structural problems within the crypto industry. 4E Commentary: The speed of BTC's decline reflects the chain reaction of liquidity tightening, with the options market already betting on the $80,000 range. Short-term sentiment is fragile, treasury selling pressure and macroeconomic headwinds combine, and the market needs to be wary of a second deep drop, but the core risk comes from the macro environment rather than the crypto fundamentals themselves.