Iron ore port stockpiles in China hit record as mines add supply

Iron ore port stockpiles in China hit record as mines add supply

Iron Ore Port Stockpiles in China Hit Record as Mines Add Supply

China’s iron ore port inventories reached a record high in October 2025, reflecting a surge in imports and rising global seaborne supply. Imports totaled 113.3 million tonnes in October, a 7% year-on-year increase, driven by restocking activity following optimism around the U.S.-China summit in late October and persistent steel industry output cuts. Port inventories have steadily built amid declining domestic iron ore production and continued reliance on foreign imports.

The increase in supply has been fueled by record shipments from major exporters. Australia’s Port Hedland, a key export terminal, shipped 49.5 million tonnes in October—a nearly 8% rise from October 2024—while Brazil maintained an average daily export rate of 1.85 million tonnes. Additionally, Guinea’s Simandou mine, a long-anticipated high-grade project, made its first shipment in November 2025, with 20 million tonnes expected to arrive in China by early 2026. The mine’s full capacity of 120 million tonnes per year by 2030 could further reshape global supply dynamics.

Despite robust imports, China’s steel demand remains under pressure. Crude steel output fell 12% year-on-year in October to 72 million tonnes—the lowest since December 2023—and has declined for five consecutive months. Weakness in the property sector and a contracting manufacturing PMI (in contraction for eight months) highlight ongoing domestic challenges. Elevated steel inventories and export volumes, meanwhile, underscore efforts by Chinese mills to offload surplus production amid soft domestic demand.

The BHP-China pricing dispute has added short-term uncertainty, with Beijing restricting purchases of certain BHP iron ore grades. However, analysts anticipate iron ore prices to trend lower in 2026, averaging $95/ton, as rising supply and weak demand fundamentals persist. Key risks include delays in Simandou’s ramp-up or unexpected policy stimulus in China, which could alter the market trajectory.

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