Benson Sun: Bitcoin's drop reached a rare -5.65σ, occurring only 4 times in history.

According to Mars Finance, on February 6th, crypto KOL and former FTX community partner Benson Sun posted that Bitcoin experienced an extreme drop this morning. Based on a 200-day retracement period, BTC's drop reached -5.65 standard deviations (σ). The Six Sigma standard in manufacturing means that only 3.4 defects are allowed per million transactions, a definition of "almost impossible" in industrial civilization. Yesterday's BTC volatility was only 0.35 standard deviations away from this "industrial-grade impossibility." The theoretical probability of -5.65σ under normal distribution is approximately one in a billion. Despite the fat-tail effect in financial markets, since BTC trading records began (July 2010), this level of volatility has only occurred four times, accounting for approximately 0.07% of all trading days. Even during the deep bear markets of 2018 and 2022, such a rapid drop did not occur within a rolling 200-day period. This poses a severe test for quantitative strategies. Most current quantitative trading models are built on data from 2015 onwards. However, historical samples exceeding 5.65σ, except for the outlier "312" crash in 2020, all occurred before 2015, leaving virtually no precedents for reference. CoinKarma's quantitative strategy experienced paper losses in this market downturn, but due to its consistently low leverage (approximately 1.4x), the overall losses are manageable, with a maximum drawdown of about 30%. While extreme market conditions are costly "tuition fees," contract and on-chain data will become crucial resources for future risk control models.