Memory shortage could cause the biggest dip in smartphone shipments in over a decade
TL;DR
A RAM shortage driven by AI demand is causing smartphone shipments to drop 12.9% in 2026—the biggest decline in over a decade. Prices will rise 14%, potentially eliminating sub-$100 phones and reshaping the market long-term.
Key Takeaways
- •Smartphone shipments will drop 12.9% in 2026 due to RAM shortages from AI-driven demand, marking the largest single-year decline in over a decade.
- •Average smartphone prices will rise 14% to $523, making sub-$100 devices 'permanently uneconomical' and forcing market consolidation.
- •The Middle East/Africa will see over 20% shipment declines, with Asia Pacific (excluding Japan) dropping 13.1% and China 10.5%.
- •The crisis represents a 'structural reset' of the smartphone market, affecting total addressable market, vendor landscape, and product mix.
- •RAM prices are expected to stabilize by mid-2027, but the market impact will be long-lasting with entry and mid-tier segments shrinking significantly.
A rise in the need for computers and data centers to power AI is causing a massive shortage of RAM, driving memory prices sharply higher. Now, analyst firm IDC predicts that this will cause smartphone shipments to plummet by 12.9% this year, making it the biggest single-year dip in more than a decade.
Earlier this year, IDC reported that manufacturers shipped 1.26 billion devices in 2025. The firm predicts that figure will drop to just 1.12 billion this year.
“The memory crisis will cause more than a temporary decline; it marks a structural reset of the entire market, fundamentally reshaping the long‑term TAM [total addressable market], the vendor landscape, and the product mix,” said Nabila Popal, senior research director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, in a statement.
Popal said that because of memory shortage, the average retail price of a smartphone is expected to rise by 14%.
“We expect consolidation as smaller players exit, and low-end vendors face sharp shipment declines amid supply constraints and lower demand at higher price points. Although shipments will witness a record drop, smartphone ASP [average selling price] is projected to rise 14% to a record $523 this year,” she added.
Popal also noted that rising component costs could make the sub-$100 smartphone “permanently uneconomical,” pricing out phone makers that manufacture devices at that price point.
The firm said that, because of this trend, shipments in the Middle East and Africa will drop more than 20% year-over-year. China and the broader Asia Pacific region (excluding Japan) will also see declines of 10.5% and 13.1%, respectively.
Save up to $300 or 30% to TechCrunch Founder Summit
1,000+ founders and investors come together at TechCrunch Founder Summit 2026 for a full day focused on growth, execution, and real-world scaling. Learn from founders and investors who have shaped the industry. Connect with peers navigating similar growth stages. Walk away with tactics you can apply immediately.
Offer ends March 13.
Save up to $300 or 30% to TechCrunch Founder Summit
1,000+ founders and investors come together at TechCrunch Founder Summit 2026 for a full day focused on growth, execution, and real-world scaling. Learn from founders and investors who have shaped the industry. Connect with peers navigating similar growth stages. Walk away with tactics you can apply immediately
Offer ends March 13.
IDC added that it expects RAM prices to stabilize by mid-2027.
Last year, another analyst firm, Counterpoint, also forecast a decline in smartphone shipments, but it projected a fall smaller dip of just 2.6%.
Earlier this year, Nothing co-founder and CEO Carl Pei also warned that smartphones will cost more in 2026 as memory costs for smartphones rise. “Brands now face a simple choice: raise prices by 30% or more in some cases, or downgrade specs. The ‘more specs for less money’ model that many value brands were built on is no longer sustainable in 2026,” he said.
“As a result, some markets, particularly entry and mid-tier segments, are likely to shrink by 20% or more, and brands that have historically dominated these segments will struggle,” Pei added.