Kazakhstan main 2026 task to return inflation to single digits
TL;DR
Kazakhstan aims to reduce inflation to 9–11% by 2026, with current rates at 12.2%. Key measures include tax reforms, monetary policy, and sectoral investments, but challenges like high borrowing costs and external factors persist.
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Kazakhstan main 2026 task to return inflation to single digits
Kazakhstan’s government has prioritized reducing inflation to a 9–11% range in 2026, aligning with its broader macroeconomic stabilization strategy. As of January 2026, annual inflation stood at 12.2%, a marginal decline from 12.3% in December 2025, but still above the target corridor. The National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) has raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 9.5–12.5%, reflecting persistent pressures from tax reforms, quasi-fiscal injections, and external factors such as global commodity prices. The government has allocated approximately 8 trillion tenge to support the real sector, emphasizing investments in non-resource industries, technological modernization, and small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).
Key measures include expanding domestic food production, limiting tariff hikes by natural monopolies, and implementing the new Tax Code, which increases the value-added tax (VAT) from 12% to 16% starting in 2026. While the VAT adjustment is expected to temporarily accelerate inflation, the NBK anticipates a gradual slowdown by year-end as monetary policy remains moderately tight, with the base rate at a record 18%. The government also plans to strengthen the "one-stop-shop" business support framework and expand preferential financing programs to stimulate economic growth and household incomes.
Challenges persist, including high borrowing costs, currency volatility, and the risk of external shocks. However, coordinated efforts between the government, NBK, and regulatory agencies aim to balance inflation control with economic growth. Experts suggest that achieving single-digit inflation by late 2026 will depend on the successful implementation of these measures and the absorption of inflationary pressures from tax reforms.
