Bitcoin outperforms stocks, tops $72,000 even as dollar strengthens

• BTC rose 2% since midnight UTC, climbing through $72,000 and outpacing Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures, even as the dollar index (DXY) climbed above 100.
• A high-volume break above $74,000 could trigger a move toward $80,000, while rejection would likely keep BTC in the range seen since Feb. 5.
• TRUMP jumped over 30% after a gala announcement for top holders, while AI tokens TAO and FET each gained about 14% amid broader market strength.

Bitcoin BTC$71,189.85 rose through $72,000 during European hours on Friday, rising by 2% since midnight UTC and outpacing gains in U.S. equity indexes.

Futures on the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 index dropped during Asian trading hours before recovering. Both are now in the green. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), meanwhile, broke above 100, a move that typically puts pressure on risk assets like cryptocurrencies and stocks.

Today, however, the crypto market seems relatively immune to that pressure, with notable gains across the board. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) is 1.1% higher since midnight.

If bitcoin can break above $74,000, a level it has failed to penetrate recently, on convincing volume, it might trigger a breakout back to the $80,000 region. Otherwise, it is likely to revert to a trading range that dates back to Feb. 5.

The war in Iran continued to rage Friday morning, with fresh strikes being detected in Tehran and Dubai, keeping oil around $100 per barrel.

Derivatives positioning

• Cumulative industry-wide futures open interest (OI) increased 5% to $107.6 billion over the past 24 hours, signaling continued capital inflows as bitcoin and other tokens remain rock steady amid turmoil in global equity markets.
• Bitcoin's (OI) rose to 687,200 BTC, the most since Feb. 25. Ether's (ETH) grew to 13.72 million, the highest since Jan. 30. Annualized perpetual funding rates and cumulative volume deltas for both remain positive, a combination indicating investor bias toward bullish plays.
• In XRP, OI surged nearly 10% to $1.86 billion, the most since Feb. 6. Coupled with positive funding rates, this suggests renewed investor capital deployment for bullish bets. Open interest in SOL, ADA and SUI futures also saw notable increases.
• Bitcoin's annualized 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) dropped to a two-week low of 55%, supporting the case for continued spot price rallies. Ether's volatility is falling as well. This stability contrasts with heightened volatility in the U.S. Treasury market.
• On Deribit, bitcoin puts remain pricier than calls, a sign of lingering demand for downside protection. For ETH, the put premium at the long end has nearly evaporated, hinting at a bullish reset.
• Block flows featured demand for bitcoin put spreads and ether call spreads.

Token talk

• The altcoin market also showed strength on Friday. U.S.- president-themed memecoin TRUMP surged by more than 30% in 24 hours after the announcement of a "gala luncheon" with Donald Trump for the top 297 token holders.
• Artificial intelligence (AI) tokens bittensor (TAO) and artificial super intelligence alliance (FET) both climbed by 14% as investors continue to speculate on a wider market breakout.
• CoinMarketCap's "Altcoin Season" index is now at 40/100, its highest point since Jan. 9.
• CoinDesk's Computing Select Index (CPUS) is the leading benchmark over the past 24 hours, having increased by 6.5%. It is followed by the CoinDesk Memecoin Index (CDMEME) and the DeFi Select Index (DFX), which are up by 4% and 3.7%, respectively.
• One laggard over the past 24 hours has been canton (CC). The token of the institutional-focused layer-1 network is down by 4%, taking its loss over the past month to 11%.

• Circle's USYC token has become the largest tokenized U.S. Treasury product, with about $2.2 billion in supply, overtaking BlackRock's BUIDL fund.
• Much of USYC's recent growth is tied to its use on BNB Chain, with Binance introducing the token as off-exchange collateral for institutional derivatives trading.
• The overall market for tokenized U.S. Treasuries has surged to a fresh record of over $11 billion, up 27% this year, fueled by investor demand for yield and a place to park capital during the crypto downturn.

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