Con Stilli sees 2026 adj. EBITDA $450M to $470M, est. $454.9M
TL;DR
BlackBerry projects FY26 adjusted EBITDA of $69M-$84M, with revenue guidance of $504M-$534M, reflecting cautious optimism amid macroeconomic uncertainties. This contrasts with external estimates like Con Stilli's $450M-$470M projection.
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Con Stilli sees 2026 adj. EBITDA $450M to $470M, est. $454.9M
BlackBerry’s 2026 Financial Outlook: EBITDA Growth Amid Cautious Guidance
BlackBerry (NYSE: BB) has outlined its financial guidance for fiscal year 2026 (FY26), with adjusted EBITDA projected to range between $69 million and $84 million, reflecting a notable improvement from its FY2025 performance. For the full fiscal year 2025, the company reported total revenue of $534.9 million, accompanied by a GAAP net loss of $79.0 million and adjusted net income of $12.5 million.
The FY26 outlook includes total revenue guidance of $504–$534 million, with adjusted EBITDA expected to reach breakeven to $7 million in Q1 FY26 and $34–$44 million for the full year. Segment-wise, the licensing division is anticipated to contribute approximately $20 million in adjusted EBITDA for FY26, while corporate costs are estimated at $40 million. Analysts note that the company's conservative approach to forecasting aligns with ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties, as highlighted by industry observers.
While some external estimates, such as Con Stilli's projection of $450–$470 million in adjusted EBITDA for 2026, significantly exceed BlackBerry's self-reported guidance, the company has not indicated such ambitious targets. Its FY26 guidance emphasizes cautious optimism, with revenue expectations nearly aligned with FY2025 levels despite a shift from a net loss to a projected adjusted profit.
Investors should monitor BlackBerry's progress in balancing revenue stability with cost management, particularly as it navigates competitive pressures in the cybersecurity and software segments. The company's focus on licensing and operational efficiency remains central to its strategy, though broader market conditions could influence year-end results.
BlackBerry FY2025 results and FY2026 guidance: as reported in Cantech Letter and official financial disclosures.
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