Bitcoin surges above $68,000 amid muted stock market reaction to Iran war

• Bitcoin climbed to $68,600 in early U.S. trading on Monday.
• The gains came as U.S. stocks slumped far less than feared following the U.S. strikes against Iran over the weekend.
• Economic data released Monday showed the U.S. economy accelerating strongly in February.

Crypto prices are rebounding from their worst weekend levels in early U.S. trading on Monday alongside a sizable bounce in U.S. equity indices.

Roughly one hour into the session, the Nasdaq is down just 0.1% after futures at one point overnight had indicated a plunge of more than 2%. The S&P 500 and DJIA are also posting just very modest losses.

Gold remains higher by 2% and crude oil by 7%. The U.S. dollar index is having one of its strongest sessions in weeks, gaining 1%.

Bitcoin BTC$68,991.07 has moved up to $68,600, ahead 2.3% over the past 24 hours. Ether (ETH) is higher by 1.4%, with solana (SOL) and XRP (XRP) up similar amounts.

Crypto-related stocks are posting even larger gains, led by Circle's (CRCL) 12% advance. Strategy (MSTR) is higher by 6% and Galaxy Digital (GLXY) by 4.7%.

On the macro side, the ISM manufacturing PMI came in at 52.4, for February, marking another month of sector expansion and the first consecutive run of prints above 50 since the fourth quarter of 2022. This follows Friday’s Chicago Business Barometer, which rose to 57.7 in February 2026 from 54 previously and well above expectations of 52.8. The reading signals only the second expansion since November 2023 and reflects the strongest pace of US activity growth since May 2022.

Against the backdrop of conflict in the Middle East, reaccelerating manufacturing activity, hotter-than-expected PPI data last week, and higher oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions, a March rate cut now appears effectively off the table ahead of the Federal Reserve’s March 18 meeting.

Normally, that might be considered a headwind for crypto prices, but it's quite possible that markets had already priced in tighter than previously expected U.S. monetary policy.

• Nasdaq asked the SEC to approve listing binary options tied to the Nasdaq-100 and its micro index, allowing traders to make yes-or-no bets on index moves.
• The proposed contracts, priced between 1 cent and $1, would pay a fixed amount if a specified condition is met and expire worthless if it is not, mirroring prediction-market mechanics.
• The move highlights how traditional exchanges and crypto platforms alike are adapting prediction-style trading formats within U.S. securities and derivatives regulations amid growing interest in event-based markets.

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