Traders split over whether Lighter’s LIT clears $3 billion FDV after launch

• Lighter's LIT token has not yet begun open trading, but its premarket valuation is already sparking debate, with estimates ranging from $2 billion to over $3 billion.
• The fully diluted valuation (FDV) of LIT is a contentious topic, as it reflects potential market value based on maximum token supply, which can be misleading without considering liquidity.
• Premarket trading suggests a valuation above $3 billion, but prediction markets show uncertainty, with traders on Polymarket giving even odds for LIT exceeding this figure.

Lighter’s LIT token has not yet begun open trading, but the market has already drawn a sharp line around its valuation after Tuesday's airdrop.

Traders are split on whether the new governance token of the Ethereum-based Layer 2 decentralized exchange (DEX) deserves a fully diluted valuation closer to $2 billion or $3 billion.

Fully diluted valuation, or FDV, estimates a token’s total market value by multiplying its price by the maximum possible supply if all tokens were issued and circulating.

Premarket trading has placed LIT near $3.20, implying an FDV above $3 billion, according to CoinMarketCap, while prediction markets tell a more cautious story.

Recent low-float launches like Monad, EigenLayer, and Movement inflated headline valuations into the billions even as most tokens remain locked, leaving FDV to act less as a proxy for real demand and more as a forward-looking estimate that can be easily distorted without close attention to liquidity and tokenomics.

On Polymarket, traders see roughly even odds that LIT exceeds a $3 billion fully diluted valuation a day after launch, while expectations for $4 billion and $6 billion outcomes have faded, with market data showing those higher price targets collapsing after October’s crash.

In comparison, Hyperliquid's HYPE token debuted at around a $4.2 billion FDV last November.

Dune data shows Lighter has averaged about $2.7 billion in daily perpetuals volume over the past week, placing it behind only Hyperliquid and Aster.

2025 was defined by a stark divergence: structural progress collided with stagnant price action. Institutional milestones were reached and TVL increased across most major ecosystems, yet the majority of large-cap Layer-1 tokens finished the year with negative or flat returns.

This report analyzes the structural decoupling between network usage and token performance. We examine 10 major blockchain ecosystems, exploring protocol versus application revenues, key ecosystem narratives, mechanics driving institutional adoption, and the trends to watch as we head into 2026.

• Metaplanet bought 4,279 Bitcoin for about $451 million, taking total holdings to 35,102 BTC as part of its long-term treasury strategy.
• The company shares ended the year up around 8% at 405 yen.
• The company's bitcoin income generation business, which uses derivatives to earn recurring revenue, is expected to deliver about $55 million in 2025.

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