China's yuan fixing estimated at 6.7716, survey shows

On July 15, 2026, the offshore yuan (CNY) traded at 6.7714 per U.S. dollar, reflecting a slight decline of 0.04% from the previous session. This rate aligns closely with the estimated fixing of 6.7716, as reported in recent surveys. The yuan’s performance has been influenced by a mix of domestic and global factors, including China’s trade dynamics and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

China’s trade surplus reached a record high of USD 125.6 billion in the latest reporting period, driven by strong global demand for AI-related hardware and higher semiconductor prices. Exports surged 27% year-on-year to USD 412.4 billion, while imports rose 36% to USD 286.8 billion, both exceeding market forecasts. These figures highlight the resilience of China’s external demand despite domestic economic challenges.

However, the yuan has weakened by 0.22% over the past month, though it has appreciated by 5.70% over the last 12 months. Analysts attribute the recent volatility to increased demand for safe-haven assets amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and rising oil prices, which have strengthened the U.S. dollar. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained a relatively stable fixing rate, signaling a cautious approach to currency management.

Looking ahead, the yuan is projected to trade at 6.77 by the end of the quarter and 6.73 in 12 months, according to global macroeconomic models and analyst expectations. Investors will closely monitor upcoming Chinese economic data, including trade figures, Q2 GDP, and industrial production, for further insights into the yuan’s trajectory.