On Kalshi, Gemini's probability of winning the prediction "What will be the best AI by the end of 2025?" has risen to 86%.
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TL;DR
On Kalshi's prediction market, Google's Gemini now has an 86% chance of being the best AI by end of 2025, up from 30% earlier this year, while ChatGPT and Grok have lower probabilities.
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KalshiGeminiAI predictionprediction market2025
According to Mars Finance, on December 14th, in the Kalshi prediction market's prediction market related to "What is the best AI by the end of 2025?", Google's Gemini's winning probability rose to 86%, OpenAI's ChatGPT's winning probability was 8%, and xAI's Grok's winning probability was 6%. The prediction market's trading volume has reached $14.08 million. It's worth noting that at the beginning of this year, Gemini's winning probability was 30%, ChatGPT's was 41%, and Grok's was 14%. The prediction market will use LM Arena leaderboard data for final settlement.