Analysis: When the volatility index VIX exceeds 28.7, the S&P 500 often delivers strong returns.
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TL;DR
When the VIX volatility index exceeds 28.7, the S&P 500 often yields strong returns, with averages up to +27% over 12 months. High VIX levels historically signal buying opportunities.
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VIXS&P 500volatilitymarket analysisreturns
According to Mars Finance, on November 24th, KobeissiLetter released a market analysis stating that historically, when the VIX volatility index exceeds 28.7, the S&P 500 index tends to deliver strong returns over the next 12 months. When the VIX index was between 28.7 and 33.5, from 1991 to 2022, the average return over the following year was +16%. When the VIX index exceeded 33.5, the average return over 12 months was as high as +27%. In contrast, when the VIX index fluctuated between 11.3 and 12.0, the S&P 500 index returned +15% over the following year. Historical data shows that rising VIX indices often create buying opportunities. The current VIX index is 23.42.