Bitcoin logs worst first 50-day start to a year on record

• Bitcoin is down 23% through the first 50 days of 2026, marking its weakest start to a financial year on record.
• The asset has never previously posted consecutive declines in January and February, with February currently on track to extend January’s losses.

Fifty days into 2026, bitcoin is off to its worst start to a financial year on record, according to Checkonchain data. The asset is down 23% year to date, having fallen 10% in January and a further 15% in February.

Bitcoin has never previously recorded back-to-back declines in January and February, according to Coinglass data. While there have been double digit drops in January in years such as 2015, 2016 and 2018, each of those was followed by a positive February. If losses hold, bitcoin is also on track for its weakest consecutive monthly performance since 2022.

Checkonchain data shows that in a typical down year, the average index reading is 0.84, 50 days in, a benchmark that traders often use to gauge cyclical drawdowns. While bitcoin is currently at 0.77, underscoring the scale of the drawdown.

The weakness follows a 17% decline in 2025, a post election year. Historically, post election years have tended to outperform election years and have outperformed up years on aggregate, making the recent underperformance stand out further.

• Bitcoin wallets holding less than 0.1 BTC have increased their share of supply to the highest since mid-2024 even as the price holds around the mid-$60,000s.
• Larger holders with 10 to 10,000 bitcoins — the whales and sharks that typically drive major moves — have reduced their positions since the October peak.
• The divergence supports choppy, fragile price action because retail demand alone cannot sustain rallies when big wallets are distributing into every recovery.

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