Bitcoin dips under $63,000 and history says more pain ahead before bottom forms

• Bitcoin extends overnight weakness amid renewed concerns over President Trump's tariffs.
• Analysts say the key $60,000 support level is being closely watched, with a break potentially opening the way to the mid-to-low $50,000 range.
• Historical patterns suggest bitcoin may not find a lasting bottom until its 50-week moving average crosses below the 100-week average, implying further downside toward $50,000 or lower is possible.

Bitcoin BTC$63,083.82 dipped below $63,000 during Asian trading hours, extending overnight weakness amid President Donald Trump's tariffs and AI jitters that have soured investor sentiment.

The leading cryptocurrency by market value is already down nearly 7% for the week, trading at levels last seen on Feb. 6 when prices nearly dropped to $60,000, CoinDesk data shows.

"Similar to equities, Bitcoin has had a sharp pullback today, driven largely by renewed tariff-related uncertainty, similar to the events of April 2025. Furthermore, ratcheting geopolitical tensions could likely prove bearish for BTC in the short-term," Matt Howells-Barby, vice president at Kraken, Pro Trader, and host of Trading Spaces, told CoinDesk in an email.

He added that the $60,000 level is a key support that bulls are watching closely. "If that level fails to hold, we could potentially see a move into the mid-to-low $50K range," he noted.

The U.S. stocks fell Monday after Trump said he would place temporary 15% tariffs on imports from other countries, up from the 10% rate announced Friday following the Supreme Court's decision to struck down his tariffs strategy. Meanwhile, investors continued to sell shares in companies that stand to lose the AI revolution.

History favors a deeper sell-off in BTC

History shows BTC rarely bottoms until the 50-week average price crosses below the 100-week average price. This so-called bear cross has marked the end of every major bear market, including those in 2022 and 2018.

We're nowhere near that signal today, as the 50-week average price remains well above the 100-week.

So, if past data is a guide, the market could slide further, potentially to $50,000 or lower, as several experts told CoinDesk at Consensus Hong Kong before the averages cross bearish and capitulation sets in.

The pattern may seem counterintuitive: The 50-week average dropping below the 100-week signal further weakens momentum.

But it fits the moving averages' lagging nature perfectly: crossovers confirm what's already happened – not predict what's next – so long-term ones have tended to market bear market bottoms in bitcoin.

That said, as with any indicator, the past record offers no assurance of future results.

• Crypto derivatives such as ETF-linked options and futures could rival or exceed spot trading volumes on major global exchanges.
• As derivatives activity scales on regulated venues, volatility pricing in U.S. markets may play a larger role in setting bitcoin’s global price.
• The shift would further consolidate price discovery within regulated futures markets, extending their influence over the broader crypto ecosystem.

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