Analysts predict that if the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged in Q1 2026, Bitcoin could fall to $70,000.
TL;DR
Analysts predict Bitcoin could fall to $70,000 if the Fed holds rates in Q1 2026, but if Reserve Management Purchases continue, it may rise to $92,000-$98,000 due to liquidity and institutional support.
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On December 25th, according to Cointelegraph, BTSE COO Jeff Mei stated that if the Federal Reserve maintains its interest rates unchanged in the first quarter of 2026, Bitcoin could fall to $70,000 and Ethereum could fall to $2,400. However, the Federal Reserve ended its quantitative tightening (QT) on December 1st and launched its Reserve Management Purchases (RMPs) program, purchasing approximately $40 billion in short-term Treasury bonds monthly, which some analysts consider a form of "hidden quantitative easing (QE)."
If RMPs continue into Q1 2026, they could inject liquidity and support risk asset prices. Jeff Mei predicts Bitcoin could rise to $92,000 to $98,000, while Ethereum could benefit from L2 scaling improvements and increased DeFi appeal, reaching $3,600. Furthermore, over $50 billion in ETF inflows and institutional accumulation will further drive market gains.